Modelling the spatial variation of vital rates: An evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of correlative species distribution models

Abstract

Aim: Species distribution models based on breeding occurrence data allow for identifying both environmental drivers and geographic areas potentially relevant for breeding. However, the interpretation of model predictions in terms of reproductive performance should be further investigated, as this information is crucial for conservation planning. We evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of a correlative modelling approach based on breeding occurrence data (presence–absence) against another approach based on vital rates’ data (breeding success) for gaining insights on species persistence in the case of Great Bustards (Otis tarda). Location: Spain. Methods: Breeding occurrence and breeding suc..